Modelling Uncertainty: A Tale That Tails Tell

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Tuesday, 6 June 2017, 11:00 to 12:00

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In this non-technical talk, we discuss uncertainty – why it needs to be modelled – the role of probability theory, brief history of probability, and some of its popular applications.  We focus especially on modelling tail events - events that occur with small probability but can lead to catastrophic consequences. For last two centuries, many natural and social phenomenon were thought to follow the light-tailed Normal distribution or the `Bell Curve’. Lately, particularly in social settings, one sees fat-tailed distributions. In this talk, we also shed light on the underlying principles governing these distributions.